February 2026 Monthly Review

A Look Back

The above quote is from the famous Russian author Leo Tolstoy. His War and Peace from 1869 is widely considered one of the greatest novels ever written. In addition to the quote above, he said “wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it.” That is a simple but powerful reminder! I believe this month’s title is not only true in everyday life, but also in how we should think about financial markets. We have 150 years of data; countless economic cycles combined with numerous geo-political struggles to suggest just how true that simple line really is. In February, those that have been patient in their allocation to international stocks continued to be rewarded. Developed international stocks were up 4.63%, while Emerging equities fared even better with a 5.50% return. The YTD returns for both are already in double digits just two months into 2026! We’ve added a few new benchmarks to the table above to include the popular NASDAQ, which is a cap-weighted index that tracks over 2500 stocks listed on the NASDAQ exchange, heavily weighted toward technology companies. After substantial outperformance from 2023 through 2025, technology stocks have lagged so far this year…down 3.33% in February alone. Core bonds delivered a healthy 1.64% return last month, as longer-term rates declined. The 10-year Treasury yield went from a 4.25% yield at the end of January to close the month at 3.96%. That is a substantial one-month move. It has since rallied to stand at 4.18% as of March 6th, as markets everywhere digest the news from the Iranian conflict. Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, continued its recent slide, down 13.72%, ending the month below 67,000. That is nearly 50% off the all-time high made in October of last year!

A Look Ahead

Financial markets are not so different from the average person…they hate uncertainty. We’ve seen it play out with financial and geo-political surprises throughout time. We have also seen the true long-term benefits of patience as we navigate uncertain times. The S&P 500 index was at 250 when I started my career in 1986. It stood at 6880 at the end of February. (So, $25,000 invested then would be worth $688,000 today) We’ve navigated Black Monday of 1987, the ”Dot Com” bubble of the early 2000s, the Great Recession of 2008-09, and more recently the Covid pandemic of 2020…just to name a few of the significant hurdles that we, and markets, have had to deal with. And we, and they have. Patience and time…It is tough sometimes, but when you have the benefit of seeing the results, it is hard to argue. We have hurdles now. Tensions are higher with the U.S. and Israel striking Iran last weekend, and other countries throughout the Middle East getting involved since. Although the initial hope was for a quick operation, the reality may be different as a ruthless regime is held to account. We have seen swift economic consequences, as the price of crude oil spiked from $65 a barrel to $88 currently. The price at the pump has risen correspondingly as well. That affects the average consumer. The recent February Jobs report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, after a larger-than-expected increase of 126,000 in January. The January Producer Price Index released last month showed an increase of .5%, higher than the expectation of .3%...More hurdles. But, we have also seen the recent and longer-term resilience of our markets and our economy. We continue to favor quality in our client portfolios and will look to reap the rewards of time and patience as we move forward.